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Research Article|Articles in Press

Quantifying methane emissions under field conditions under 2 different dairy production scenarios: Low-input versus high-input milk production

Open AccessPublished:May 10, 2023DOI:https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2022-22804

      ABSTRACT

      Livestock production systems with ruminants play a relevant role in the emission of the greenhouse gas CH4, which is known to significantly contribute to global warming. Consequently, it is a major societal concern to develop strategies in mitigating such emissions. In addition to breeding toward low-emitting cows, management strategies could also help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farms. However, information is required for appropriate decision making. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that considers different, already available equations to estimate CH4 emissions of small-scale dairy farms in the mountain region, which largely differ from large dairy farms in the lowlands concerning management and production. For this study, 2 different production systems, both typical for small-scale dairy farming in mountain regions, were simultaneously run over 3 yr at an experimental farm as follows: (1) a high-input production system, characterized by intensive feeding with high amounts of external concentrates and maize silage, year-round housing, and high yielding Simmental cattle breed, and (2) a low-input production system, characterized by prevailing hay and pasture feeding and silage ban, thus covering most of the energy requirements by forage harvested on-farm and the use of the local Tyrolean Grey cattle breed. Results reveal that feeding management has a significant effect on the amount of CH4 emissions. The low-input production system produced less CH4 per cow and per day compared with the high-input production system. However, if calculated per kilogram of milk, the high-input scenario produced proportionally less CH4 than the low-input one. Findings of this study highlight the potential to assess in a fast and cost-effective way the CH4 emission in different dairy production systems. This information contributes to the debate about the future of sustainable milk production in mountain regions, where the production of feed resources is climatically constrained, and could be useful for breeding purposes toward lower CH4-emissions.

      Key words

      INTRODUCTION

      Methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are known to be some of the most relevant greenhouse gases and, thus, important drivers for global climate change (
      • Schmithausen A.J.
      • Schiefler I.
      • Trimborn M.
      • Gerlach K.
      • Südekum K.H.
      • Pries M.
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      Quantification of methane and ammonia emissions in a naturally ventilated barn by using defined criteria to calculate emission rates.
      ). Although CO2 has a much longer lifetime in the atmosphere than CH4, the latter has a many-fold higher global warming effect than that of CO2 when present in the atmosphere (
      • Boadi D.
      • Benchaar C.
      • Chiquette J.
      • Massé D.
      Mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emissions from dairy cows: Update review.
      ). Approximately 40% of the anthropogenic CH4 production can be attributed to livestock production (
      • Broucek J.
      Production of methane emissions from ruminant husbandry: A review.
      ;
      • Aguirre-Villegas H.A.
      • Passos-Fonseca T.H.
      • Reinemann D.J.
      • Armentano L.E.
      • Wattiaux M.A.
      • Cabrera V.E.
      • Norman J.M.
      • Larson R.
      Green cheese: Partial life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and energy intensity of integrated dairy production and bioenergy systems.
      ;
      • Hou Y.
      • Velthof G.L.
      • Oenema O.
      Mitigation of ammonia, nitrous oxide and methane emissions from manure management chains: A meta-analysis and integrated assessment.
      ). The largest fraction of CH4 produced by livestock farming originates from microbial fermentation of cellulosic feed material inside the rumen or, to a smaller extent, in the intestine, whereas a minor faction is formed during the decomposition of manure (
      • Beauchemin K.A.
      • McAllister T.A.
      • McGinn S.M.
      Dietary mitigation of enteric methane from cattle.
      ;
      • Garnsworthy P.C.
      • Craigon J.
      • Hernandez-Medrano J.H.
      • Saunders N.
      On-farm methane measurements during milking correlate with total methane production by individual dairy cows.
      ;
      • Broucek J.
      Production of methane emissions from ruminant husbandry: A review.
      ;
      • Hou Y.
      • Velthof G.L.
      • Oenema O.
      Mitigation of ammonia, nitrous oxide and methane emissions from manure management chains: A meta-analysis and integrated assessment.
      ). The latter depends significantly on the animal housing system, as well as on manure storage and application systems, and can be reduced to a negligible amount when meeting optimal manure management strategies (
      • Garnsworthy P.C.
      • Craigon J.
      • Hernandez-Medrano J.H.
      • Saunders N.
      On-farm methane measurements during milking correlate with total methane production by individual dairy cows.
      ;
      • Hristov A.N.
      • Oh J.
      • Firkins J.L.
      • Dijkstra J.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Waghorn G.
      • Makkar H.P.S.
      • Adesogan A.T.
      • Yang W.
      • Lee C.
      • Gerber P.J.
      • Henderson B.
      • Tricarico J.M.
      Special topics-Mitigation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from animal operations: I. A review of enteric methane mitigation options.
      ). This could be reached by reducing, in general, the amount of liquid and stored manure (
      • VanderZaag A.C.
      • Flesch T.K.
      • Desjardins R.L.
      • Baldé H.
      • Wright T.
      Measuring methane emissions from two dairy farms: Seasonal and manure-management effects.
      ), which could be achieved, for instance, by increasing pasture access (
      • Groenestein K.
      • Mosquera J.
      • van der Sluis S.
      Emission factors for methane and nitrous oxide from manure management and mitigation options.
      ). Enteric CH4 emissions, however, are more restricted in their management options as they primarily depend on the DMI, as well as on the feeding ration composition and on microbial fauna inside the digestive tract of ruminants (
      • Ibidhi R.
      • Calsamiglia S.
      Carbon footprint assessment of Spanish dairy cattle farms: Effectiveness of dietary and farm management practices as a mitigation strategy.
      ). Therefore, it is of great interest to assess enteric CH4 emissions and, consequently, to develop strategies such as genetic selection for the permanent reduction of CH4 production by ruminants (e.g.,
      • de Haas Y.
      • Veerkamp R.F.
      • de Jong G.
      • Aldridge M.N.
      Selective breeding as a mitigation tool for methane emissions from dairy cattle.
      ). Yet, direct measurement methods using, for example, respiration chambers or in vitro gas production techniques are highly cost-intensive and can only be applied with a limited number of animals, making it difficult to obtain relevant data on the whole breeding population (
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ;
      • Zhao Y.
      • Nan X.
      • Yang L.
      • Zheng S.
      • Jiang L.
      • Xiong B.
      A review of enteric methane emission measurement techniques in ruminants.
      ). Thus, due to these restrictions, developing estimation formulas that can be applied for quantifying CH4 production with high accuracy on a larger scale has been regarded as a major aim. Indeed, many authors, such as
      • Kiggundu M.
      • Nantongo Z.
      • Kayondo S.I.
      • Mugerwa S.
      Enteric methane emissions of grazing short-horn zebu weaner bulls vary with estimation method and level of crude protein supplementation.
      and
      • Eugène M.
      • Sauvant D.
      • Nozière P.
      • Viallard D.
      • Oueslati K.
      • Lherm M.
      • Mathias E.
      • Doreau M.
      A new tier 3 method to calculate methane emission inventory for ruminants.
      , performed enteric CH4 emission estimations following the Tier 2 and Tier 3 equations, issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2006. These widely used guidelines are based on a CH4 conversion factor (Ym), that describes the percentage of gross energy in feed converted to CH4 and relies on previous measurements made in respiration chambers (
      • Storm I.M.L.D.
      • Hellwing A.L.F.
      • Nielsen N.I.
      • Madsen J.
      Methods for measuring and estimating methane emission from ruminants.
      ). Nevertheless, these numbers are based on relatively generalized estimations and, therefore, might possibly affect the reliability of the results. With the objective to obtain more accurate values,
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      as well as
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      have developed formulas based on parameters that can be measured or calculated directly, such as the DMI of cattle. Such variables, however, are not continuously and conveniently assessed in practice on dairy farms. Considering these restrictions, the necessity to provide a formula that takes into consideration variables that are routinely measured in practice (for instance, via milk recording) becomes evident. Therefore,
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      developed a formula with the aim to predict CH4 emission based on ECM yield and milk mid-infrared spectra providing an estimate of milk fatty acid (FA) concentrations.
      The aim of our study was to estimate/characterize for the very first time the CH4 emissions of small-scale dairy farms in mountain region with contrasting production systems. For this purpose, we considered a low-input production system (roughage feed and pasture-based) with the autochthonous cattle breed Tyrolean Grey and a high-input production system (intensive use of external concentrates and silage, and year-round housing) with the high yielding Simmental cattle breed, simultaneously run at an experimental farm (Mair am Hof, Dietenheim, South Tyrol, Italy) by using already established equations considering, depending on the equation, routinely and experimentally collected production parameters. Both systems are practiced in mountain regions and have various effects on environmental and production traits (
      • Katzenberger K.
      • Rauch E.
      • Erhard M.
      • Reese S.
      • Gauly M.
      Evaluating the need for an animal welfare assurance programme in South Tyrolean dairy farming.
      ;
      • Sabia E.
      • Kühl S.
      • Flach L.
      • Lambertz C.
      • Gauly M.
      Effect of feed concentrate intake on the environmental impact of dairy cows in alpine mountain region including soil carbon sequestration and effect on biodiversity.
      ;
      • Zanon T.
      • De Monte E.
      • Gauly M.
      Effects of cattle breed and production system on veterinary diagnoses and administrated veterinary medicine in alpine dairy farms.
      ). Furthermore, the effect of stage of lactation and parity on the CH4 emission was investigated. Differences between the 2 investigated systems were also expected because of the different cattle breeds adopted, as well as between the first and following lactations within the single breeds, as
      • Islam M.
      • Kim S.-H.
      • Ramos S.C.
      • Mamuad L.L.
      • Son A.-R.
      • Yu Z.
      • Lee S.-S.
      • Cho Y.-I.
      • Lee S.-S.
      Holstein and Jersey steers differ in rumen microbiota and enteric methane emissions even fed the same total mixed ration.
      and
      • Silvestre T.
      • Lima M.A.
      • dos Santos G.B.
      • Pereira L.G.R.
      • Machado F.S.
      • Tomich T.R.
      • Campos M.M.
      • Jonker R.
      • Rodrigues P.H.M.
      • Brandao V.L.N.
      • Marcondes M.I.
      Effects of feeding level and breed composition on intake, digestibility, and methane emissions of dairy heifers.
      have revealed that there are significant differences in CH4 production strongly depending on cattle breed, mainly due to their microbial composition inside the rumen.

      MATERIALS AND METHODS

      The experimental and notification procedures were carried out in compliance with the European Union Directive 2010/63/EU.

      Farm and Study Design

      This study is part of the Action Plan 2016 to 2022 for Research and Training in the Fields of Mountain Agriculture and Food Science of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen (Italy) started in 2019. Data from February 2019 to January 2022 were used for this study. Within this project, high- and low-input dairy cattle farming systems, both commonly found in the Alpine province of South Tyrol (Northeast Italy), are compared, focusing on various parameters such as animal health and welfare, economic rentability, and ecological footprint.
      The experiment took place at the experimental farm Mair am Hof (46° 48′06.9″ N, 11°57′30.6″ E, 909 m above sea level; mean annual temperature 8.3°C and mean precipitation sum 977 mm/yr for 2019 to 2021; Teodone/Dietenheim, Val Pusteria/Puster Valley, South Tyrol, Italy). The low-input strategy is characterized by an extensive management system, following the haymilk production scheme (
      • EU
      Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2016/304 of 2 March 2016 entering a name in the register of traditional specialities guaranteed [Heumilch/Haymilk/Latte fieno/Lait de foin/Leche de heno (TSG)].
      ), aiming to cover the majority of energy requirements by forage (hay and pasture feed), complying with a silage ban, and using the autochthonous Tyrolean Grey cattle breed (n = 15). The stocking method was a compartmented short sward grazing (German: Kurzrasenweide;
      • Höllrigl P.
      • Mairhofer F.
      • Peratoner G.
      Grass measurements in compartmented short sward grazing.
      ) with 4 adjoining paddocks of 1.4 ha each (i.e., a continuously stocked pasture with stocking rate adjusted by means of restriction or enlargement of the grazed area, which is the number of paddocks used weekly), to achieve a target compressed sward height of 6 to 7 cm. The sward height was measured weekly by rising plate meter (Grasshopper G2 Sensor, App version 4.02, TrueNorth Technologies). During the grazing season (March–November), the animals had ad libitum pasture access and a maximum indoor feed integration of about 37% of DMI of the total ration amount offered indoor during wintertime, with the pasture representing a large amount of the diet within this period (approximately 63% of DMI). The high-input system, on the other hand, is characterized by year-round housing of the animals and a feed ration mainly composed of maize silage, grass silage, and concentrates with the objective to obtain high milk yield using the high yielding Simmental cattle breed (n = 15). For both systems, a dual-purpose cattle breed was chosen, as
      • Zanon T.
      • König S.
      • Gauly M.
      A comparison of animal-related figures in milk and meat production and economic revenues from milk and animal sales of five dairy cattle breeds reared in Alps region.
      revealed the future economic potential of such breeds for Alpine dairy production systems.
      Individual milk yield as well as energy uptake inside the stable have been routinely collected for both herds. The individual indoor DMI was continuously recorded by means of roughage intake control (RIC) feed-weigh troughs (Hokofarm Group). Forage analyses of all ration components were routinely performed at each variation of the feed ration, allowing computation of DM content and energy content of the ration in terms of NEL according to

      RAP. 2015. Fütterungsempfehlungen und Nährwerttabellen für Wiederkäuer. 4. überarbeitete und erweiterte Auflage 1999. 2015 revision. Landwirtschaftliche Lehrmittelzentrale, Zollikofen.

      . The daily milk production was measured by means of a milking parlor equipped with an electronic milk-recording device (Westfalia Dairy Plan, Westfalia-Surge). The herbage intake on the pasture was estimated by dividing the difference between the energy requirement on pasture and the energy intake in the barn by the energy content of the herbage on the pasture. The energy requirements on the pasture were estimated according to
      • Macoon B.
      • Sollenberger L.E.
      • Moore J.E.
      • Staples C.R.
      • Fike J.H.
      • Portier K.M.
      Comparison of three techniques for estimating the forage intake of lactating dairy cows on pasture.
      with the following adjustments and assumptions: (1) the energy requirements for maintenance were assessed according to
      • Kirchgeßner M.
      • Stangl G.
      • Schwarz F.J.
      • Roth F.X.
      • Südekum K.H.
      • Eder K.
      Tierernährung.
      ; (2) the energy requirements for BW changes were obtained by linear interpolation between 2 successive BW measurements. The latter were obtained by individual measurements of the lactating animals using a field scale (EziWeigh6i, Datamars Livestock), synchronized with the routine milk performance tests and carried out on average every 40 d. For the days preceding the first measurement after calving and those following the last measurement before calving, the slope of the following measurement interval or the previous measurement interval were respectively used; (3) the walked distance, according to an educated guess of the farm personnel, was set equal to 8 times the distance of the stall from the centroid of the paddocks (143.4 × 8 = 1,147.2 m), and the resulting energy expenditures were doubled according to
      • Di Marco O.N.
      • Aello M.S.
      Energy expenditure due to forage intake and walking of grazing cattle.
      , based on the mean slope of the paddocks (15.3% on average); and (4) the grazing time was set to 7 h/d.
      The energy content of the herbage from the pasture was surveyed in each paddock according to a simplified Corrall-Fenlon method (
      • Corrall A.J.
      • Fenlon J.S.
      A comparative method for describing the seasonal distribution of production from grasses.
      ), as modified by
      • Mosimann E.
      Croissance des herbages. Méthodes de mesure et applications pratiques.
      , and linearly interpolated between sampling dates. Milk quality was characterized during the routine milk performance tests carried out on average every 40 d, including the FA profile, by means of mid-infrared spectroscopy (Milko-Scan FT7, Foss Electric). All other parameters were related to these measurement dates as monthly mean values for each animal.
      In addition to that, dairy cows were assigned to 2 groups based on parity (i.e., primiparous and multiparous cows). The lactation stage was expressed as lactation day at the time of the milk performance tests, whereas seasonality was accounted as week of the year for.
      For better visualization of the differences between the investigated equations, calculations have been made, making use of 2 different quantification units of CH4 production as follows: liter or megajoule of CH4 produced per day and CH4 emissions (liter or MJ) produced per kilogram of milk.

      Feed Ration Composition.

      In Table 1, the 2 different feeding rations are summarized. The Simmental cattle was fed with a pre-defined feeding ration, slightly adapted over time, consisting on average of 12.9% hay (from different cuts), 25.3% maize silage, 25.8% grass silage, 34.9% concentrates, and 0.9% mineral feed. The Tyrolean Grey group, on the contrary, was fed with a ration containing 76.5% of hay (from different cuts), 21.3% concentrates, and 2.1% mineral feed (Table 1). During the vegetation period, the indoor DMI of the low-input group decreased (from 16.4 kg of average actual DMI inside the stable during the winter season to 6.6 kg during the grazing season), whereas DMI from pasture increased and accounted for 63.1% (11.3 kg) of total DMI (Table 1). Data for pasture intake could not be measured directly and was thus quantified as described above. On a yearly basis, pasture accounts for approximately one third of total DMI intake of the low-input group. In addition to the individually recorded DMI, the cows received a little amount of concentrates (0.5–1 kg/d) as a pet bait during the milking process, which the total DMI does not account for (Table 1).
      Table 1Mean daily DMI (average of monthly means of all available measurements) of the different components of the ration for Simmental and Tyrolean Grey dairy cattle
      Ration componentFarming system
      High-inputLow-input
      All yearWinter season
      November–March (depending on the effective start date and end date of grazing).
      Grazing season
      March–November (depending on the effective start date and end date of grazing).
      Daily ration (kg of DM/d)Proportion in the ration (%)Daily ration (kg of DM/d)Proportion in the ration (%)Daily ration (kg of DM/d)Proportion in the ration (%)
      Hay2.812.912.576.54.974.7
      Grass silage5.425.30.00.00.00.0
      Maize silage5.625.80.00.00.00.0
      Concentrates7.534.93.521.31.623.9
      Mineral feed0.20.90.32.10.11.4
      Estimated herbage intake on pasture0.00.00.00.011.363.1
      Feed intake barn
      Average of the effective daily DMI recorded in the stable.
      21.5100.016.4100.06.636.9
      Total intake21.5100.016.4100.017.9100.0
      1 November–March (depending on the effective start date and end date of grazing).
      2 March–November (depending on the effective start date and end date of grazing).
      3 Average of the effective daily DMI recorded in the stable.

      Estimation of CH4 Emissions.

      For quantifying CH4 emission several previous published equations were considered, which use routinely as well as not routinely collected parameters. The equations were selected according to the availability of parameters recorded within our study as well as by the production environment under which they were developed, to generate a high accuracy of estimate (Table 2). The equations were as follows.
      Table 2Investigation fields (cattle breed, housing system, ration) within publications
      ItemReference
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      Cattle breedVarious breeds (mainly Holstein Friesian and Brown Swiss)Holstein-FriesianHolstein-Friesian
      Housing system58 freestall systems; 7 pasture systems; 18 tiestall barnsVarious housing systems depending on the feeding experimentTiestall barnsVarious housing systems
      RationDiverse feeding systems, depending on publication: grass-, maize- and legume-based silage; concentrate mixtureGrass- and corn silage-based diet; Concentrate mixtureMaize-and grass silage, dried alfalfa; concentrate mixtureGrass silage-based diet; concentrate mixture
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      predicted the CH4 yield in L/d with the daily DMI as the variable in the following equation (RH):
      RH: CH4 (L/d) = 51.5 × DMI0.792.


      Similarly, the equation of
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; ENG1) considers DMI as well as CH4 yield in L/d as calculation units in the following equation:
      ENG1: CH4 (L/d) = 361.4 + 18.9 × DMI + 28.5 × C18:0 − 23.6 × C18:1 cis,


      where C18:0 and C18:1 cis are the stearic and vaccenic acid, respectively, expressed in % of the sum of all milk FA.
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      as well as
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      consider the DMI for calculation, where CH4 yield is indicated as megajoules per day in the following equations (MILLS and NIU, respectively):
      MILLS: CH4 (MJ/d) = 56.27 − 56.27 × e (−0.028 × DMI),


      NIU: CH4 (MJ/d) = 4.92 + 1.13 × DMI − 0.118 × FA.


      The second equation published by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; ENG2), on the contrary, is based on the ECM (calculated as indicated above) as well as on the SFA content of the milk, expressed in % of the sum of FA as follows:
      ENG2: CH4 (L/d) = −1,364 + 9.58 × ECM + 18.5 × SFA + 32.4 × C18:0.


      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      proposed the following 2 formulas, both accounting for DMI (kg/d; YAN1), whereas just one of them also considers the BW in kilograms (YAN2):
      YAN1: CH4 (L/d) = 47.8 × DMI – 0.76 × DMI2 – 4,


      YAN2: CH4 (L/d) = 0.34 × BW + 19.7 × DMI + 12.


      Taking into consideration the variables used to develop the equations, most DMI observations of the present study were found to be quite well covered by the data range of the other studies (Table 3). One exception was given by the high-input system in ENG1, with about 40% of the values beyond the upper limit and DMI values exceeding it by up to 7.5 kg/d (Supplemental Table SM1, https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/5wpdvx2vcm/1; Peratoner et al., 2023). In the same equation, the low-input system had about half of the observations of C18:0 lying below the lower limit, whereas this happened for the large majority of those of the high-input system (83%). On the contrary, the C18:1 cis values were fairly well covered by the range used to develop ENG1. Concerning ENG2, the ECM observations of the high-input system showed the same pattern observed for DMI in ENG1, whereas SFA exhibited a good agreement for both farming systems. Finally, concerning BW (accounted for in YAN2), a large proportion (57%) of BW values exceeding the upper limit of those used to develop the equation were found. All in all, all equations making use of DMI alone provides a good matching concerning the data range, whereas partial mismatching occurs for part of the variables (ECM, C18:0, BW) combined with at least one being well matched, with a higher matching deficit for the high-input system than for the low-input one but no clear suitability or unsuitability for just 1 of the 2 systems.
      Table 3Percent of the observations of the present study for the high-input (n = 346) and the low-input group (n = 332) being lower than the minimum value (<min) or higher than the maximum value (>max) observed in the respective study to develop the equations
      See SM1 (Supplemental Table SM1, https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/5wpdvx2vcm/1; Peratoner et al., 2023) for details about the absolute values of the ranges.
      ReferenceEquation
      ENG1 = first equation by Engelke et al. (2018); RH = equation by Ramin and Huhtanen (2012); ENG2 = second equation by Engelke et al. (2018); MILLS = equation by Mills et al. (2003); NIU = equation by Niu et al. (2021); YAN1 = first equation by Yan et al. (2006); YAN2 = second equation by Yan et al. (2006).
      Farming systemDMI (kg/d)C18:0 (% of total fat)C18:1 cis (% of total fat)ECM (kg/d)SFA (% of total fat)BW (kg)
      <min>max<min>max<min>max<min>max<min>max<min>max
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ENG1High-input03783031
      Low-input0547012
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ENG2High-input03710
      Low-input4040
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      RHHigh-input04
      Low-input00
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      MILLSHigh-input01
      Low-input40
      Niu et al., 2018NIUHigh-input05
      Low-input00
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      YAN1High-input011
      Low-input00
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      YAN2High-input011057
      Low-input0000
      1 See SM1 (Supplemental Table SM1, https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/5wpdvx2vcm/1; Peratoner et al., 2023) for details about the absolute values of the ranges.
      2 ENG1 = first equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; RH = equation by
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      ; ENG2 = second equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; MILLS = equation by
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ; NIU = equation by
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      ; YAN1 = first equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      ; YAN2 = second equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      .

      Statistical Analysis

      The analysis of the estimated CH4 emissions was performed by means of stepwise forward developed linear mixed models, starting from a baseline model accounting for the farming system (low-input/high-input) as a fixed factor and for the year and its interaction with the system as random terms. Values related to the same animal over time were treated as repeated measurements over the sequence of the measurement events (ordinally scaled) with the animal as a subject. The covariance structure providing the best fit was chosen using the Akaike's information criterion as an indicator. The usefulness of including further explanatory variables as well as their interaction with the system was stepwise tested using maximum likelihood as the estimation method in combination with the Satterthwaite approximation of the degrees of freedom, Akaike's information criterion as indicator to identify the variable to be added next, and the polynomial degree of the metric independent variables. The following variables were considered for inclusion into the statistical predictive model: parity (primiparous/multiparous) and the 2 metric variables, treated as covariates, seasonality (week of the year), and lactation stage (lactation day). The final model was computed using REML as the estimation method. Normality of residuals and homoscedasticity were checked by means of diagnostic plots, and data transformation was performed if necessary to meet these requirements. In these cases, back-transformed values are shown.
      The correlation between CH4 emissions estimated with different equations was explored by a Pearson test.

      RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

      Overview of the Independent Variables Used in the Equations

      Most of the variables used to estimate the CH4 emissions according to the different equations showed a clear differentiation depending on the farming system (Table 4). The high-input system resulted in higher DMI and ECM (+27% and 65%, respectively; Table 1). The different values in DMI between winter and grazing season for the low-input system are due to the estimated herbage intake on pasture. Moreover, the Simmental cattle group exhibited a higher BW (+30%) in comparison to the Tyrolean Grey group, according to the expectations. The differences in terms of FA content in the milk fat, instead, were mainly driven by the occurrence of grazing for the low-input group, which led to lower total SFA and higher stearic and vaccenic acid contents (Table 4).
      Table 4Mean overall measurements obtained at the milk performance tests or referred to the same dates ± SD of the independent variables used in the equations to estimate CH4 emission depending on the farming system
      For the low-input system, values according to the occurrence or absence of grazing are shown.
      ParameterFarming system
      High-inputLow-input
      Rest of the yearGrazing season
      DMI (kg of DM/cow per d)21.3 ± 3.0316.4 ± 2.1617.9 ± 2.80
      ECM (kg/cow per d)34.0 ± 8.3722.2 ± 5.8920.0 ± 5.10
      SFA (g/100 g of FA)65.1 ± 2.8464.0 ± 2.6459.9 ± 3.32
      C18:0 (g/100 g of FA)7.8 ± 1.278.2 ± 1.349.4 ± 1.49
      C18:1 cis (g/100 g of FA)18.7 ± 2.8918.9 ± 3.3022.6 ± 4.18
      BW (kg)761.2 ± 80.07602.8 ± 58.18576.9 ± 59.19
      1 For the low-input system, values according to the occurrence or absence of grazing are shown.

      Overview of the Factors Affecting the CH4 Emissions

      Concerning the daily CH4 production per cow, the results of all equations were affected by the Farming system, with the high-input system resulting in higher CH4 production values (Table 5). The same applied to parity, with multiparous showing higher CH4 production than that of primiparous. Both the covariates seasonality and lactation stage were found to affect the CH4 emissions as well, and this effect was mostly best described by a second degree-polynomial. Moreover, an interaction between farming system and lactation stage was detected for all equations, with a further increase for the emissions of the high-input system (Table 5). The CH4 emissions per liter milk according to all equations were affected by the farming system, often interacting with the lactation stage, in a way that the emissions per cow, in the high-input system resulting in decreased emissions (Table 6). Accounting for parity in the model improved the model fit for 4 of the 7 equations, and in 3 of the 4 cases, multiparous cows were found to produce lower emissions. Seasonality and lactation stage affected the emissions as well, and interactions between farming system and lactation stage were found to improve the model accuracy for all but one equation (Table 6).
      Table 5Overview of the results of the factors found to affect the CH4 emissions per cow and day (stepwise forward developed statistical models by means of linear mixed models)
      Estimates for farming system are shown for high-input versus low-input; estimates for parity are shown for multiparous versus primiparous.
      Formula
      ENG1 = first equation by Engelke et al. (2018); RH = equation by Ramin and Huhtanen (2012); ENG2 = second equation by Engelke et al. (2018); MILLS = equation by Mills et al. (2003); NIU = equation by Niu et al. (2021); YAN1 = first equation by Yan et al. (2006); YAN2 = second equation by Yan et al. (2006).
      Dependent variable
      F = F-ratio, E = estimated parameter values.
      Source
      SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      InterceptSYPASEASEA × SEALSLS × LSSY × LSSY × LS × LS
      ENG2
      Analysis with square root-transformed data.
      F1,247.533.827.03.55.1226.612.6
      P<0.0010.001<0.0010.0640.024<0.001<0.001
      E18.0413.3881.614−0.0461.0E−03−0.0170.006
      SE0.68670.58260.31040.02504.4E−040.00140.0018
      RHF1,275.616.250.131.825.313.722.05.1
      P<0.0010.007<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.024
      E400.78173.94359.0653.924−0.0620.190−0.0010.053
      SE16.925218.38348.34550.69610.01230.06680.0002598.8060
      ENG1F293.313.922.012.824.945.27.116.7
      P<0.0010.007<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.008<0.001
      E373.389111.40155.1470.7590.862−0.003−0.5960.003
      SE32.151529.887911.76380.21220.18770.00060.22440.0006
      MILLSF1,424.016.252.032.626.014.422.85.2
      P<0.0010.007<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.023
      E17.6773.0642.4870.165−0.0030.0080.0000.005
      SE0.70060.76080.34480.02890.00050.00280.00000.0022
      NIUF318.116.547.627.121.214.823.15.7
      P<0.0010.007<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.017
      E8.5463.8302.9830.186−0.0030.010−4.3E−050.006
      SE0.86860.94310.43240.03580.00060.00349.0E−060.0027
      YAN1F2,418.616.156.933.827.116.224.75.5
      P<0.0010.007<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.019
      E473.04260.22451.4933.391−0.0540.175−0.0010.103
      SE13.866415.02866.82530.58320.01030.05560.00010.0439
      YAN2F2,018.249.855.223.518.313.013.09.5
      P<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.001<0.0010.002
      E464.662114.64068.2213.110−0.0490.157−6.2E−040.151
      SE16.146816.25189.18090.64120.01140.06421.7E−040.0489
      1 Estimates for farming system are shown for high-input versus low-input; estimates for parity are shown for multiparous versus primiparous.
      2 ENG1 = first equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; RH = equation by
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      ; ENG2 = second equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; MILLS = equation by
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ; NIU = equation by
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      ; YAN1 = first equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      ; YAN2 = second equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      .
      3 F = F-ratio, E = estimated parameter values.
      4 SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      5 Analysis with square root-transformed data.
      Table 6Overview of the results of the factors found to affect the CH4 emissions per kilogram of milk (stepwise forward developed statistical models by means of linear mixed models)
      Estimates for farming system are shown for high-input versus low-input; estimates for parity are shown for multiparous versus primiparous.
      Formula
      ENG1 = first equation by Engelke et al. (2018); RH = equation by Ramin and Huhtanen (2012); ENG2 = second equation by Engelke et al. (2018); MILLS = equation by Mills et al. (2003); NIU = equation by Niu et al. (2021); YAN1 = first equation by Yan et al. (2006); YAN2 = second equation by Yan et al. (2006).
      Dependent variable
      F = F-ratio, E = estimated parameter values.
      InterceptSource
      SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      SYPASY × PASEASEA × SEALSLS × LSSY × LSSY × LS × LS
      ENG2F1,405.35.07.310.747.350.926.7
      P<0.0010.0340.0070.001<0.001<0.001<0.001
      E12.7522.0351.480−1.586−0.1560.0030.004
      SE0.52680.64330.32280.48440.02270.00040.0008
      RH
      Analysis with logarithm (base 10)-transformed data.
      F4,903.25.64.511.61,151.673.7
      P<0.0010.0450.034<0.001<0.001<0.001
      E1.262−0.052−0.0155.0E−049.2E−04−3.6E−04
      SE0.02160.02180.00731.5E−043.4E−054.2E−05
      ENG1
      Analysis with square root-transformed data.
      F3,184.71.1154.147119.48334.013.510.5
      P<0.0010.2990.043<0.001<0.001<0.0010.001
      E3.7997−0.12980.00210.0088−1.6E−05−0.0041.1E−05
      SE0.09250.12300.00100.00100.00000.00120.0000
      MILLS
      SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      F538.92.79.41,338.7122.5
      P<0.0010.1420.002<0.001<0.001
      E0.234−0.0202.2E−045.1E−04−2.4E−04
      SE0.01150.01197.2E−051.7E−052.2E−05
      NIU
      SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      F1,224.20.214.6358.027.1
      P<0.0010.672<0.001<0.001<0.001
      E0.1550.0043.0E−043.6E−04−1.6E−04
      SE0.00610.00838.0E−052.3E−053.0E−05
      YAN1
      SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      F4,510.515.410.66.31,209.271.4
      P<0.0010.0020.0010.012<0.001<0.001
      E1.320−0.072−0.0243.7E−049.3E−04−3.6E−04
      SE0.02200.01830.00731.5E−043.4E−054.2E−05
      YAN2
      SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      F4,850.23.15.64.57.91,252.165.0
      P<0.0010.0950.0180.0340.005<0.001<0.001
      E1.327−0.036−0.018−1.4E−033.2E−059.7E−04−3.5E−04
      SE0.02210.02010.00756.5E−041.1E−053.5E−054.3E−05
      1 Estimates for farming system are shown for high-input versus low-input; estimates for parity are shown for multiparous versus primiparous.
      2 ENG1 = first equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; RH = equation by
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      ; ENG2 = second equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; MILLS = equation by
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ; NIU = equation by
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      ; YAN1 = first equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      ; YAN2 = second equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      .
      3 F = F-ratio, E = estimated parameter values.
      4 SY = farming system; PA = parity; SEA = seasonality; LS = lactation stage.
      5 Analysis with logarithm (base 10)-transformed data.
      6 Analysis with square root-transformed data.

      High-Input and Low-Input in Comparison

      The investigated equations are based on data sets that investigate diverse dairy farming systems (Table 2); although
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      as well as
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      considered data sets with production parameters from Holstein Friesian dairy cows only kept in investigational sites and fed with a pre-defined ration,
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      ,
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      , and
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      analyzed databases combining data of several studies, containing a variety of breeds, housing systems, and feed rations. All in all, the dairy farming systems described in all these studies could rather be generally regarded as intensive. Therefore, the equations might be more suitable for the high-input scenario described in our study because it is characterized by a high yielding dairy cattle breed as well as by year-round housing in a freestall housing system with silage- and concentrate-based feeding (Table 2). The low-input group provides an additional range of information on how extensive systems behave in comparison to intensive ones.
      Generally, higher CH4 values for the high-input system compared with the low-input system could be observed when focusing on the CH4 emission produced per day.
      The equation ENG2 (
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ), taking also the FA content into account, showed large differences between low- and high-input system, especially during the first lactation period. Especially toward the end of the lactation period, the low-input group showed remarkably lower CH4 production compared with the high-input group (Figure 1). For instance, CH4 emissions were found to be on average 262.1 L/d for the low-input farming system, whereas for the high-input system, values were in the range between 323 and 531 L/d, with a mean value of 422.1 L of CH4, which gives an average difference between the 2 systems of 160 L of CH4 per day. In fact, the highest difference between the 2 systems could be observed when applying this formula. This can be explained by the fact that, in addition to DMI, this equation considers milk FA, which, according to
      • Moss A.R.
      • Jouany J.P.
      • Newbold J.
      Methane production by ruminants: Its contribution to global warming.
      , might be a precise CH4 proxy because microbial activity is directly linked to FA content.
      Figure thumbnail gr1
      Figure 1Predicted values of CH4 production in liters per day according to the second equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      , depending on the farming system, parity, and lactation stage. Concerning seasonality, the results are referred to the first week of the year.
      For ENG2, which considers ECM as a calculation factor, results were slightly different, indicating values of approximately 524.4 L for the concentrate-based system and 414.0 L of daily CH4 production for the pasture-based system. As a result, variation between the 2 systems was slightly lower when applying this second equation, which might be explained using different variables within the formulas (DMI for the first and ECM for the second one). However, as
      • Hristov A.N.
      • Oh J.
      • Firkins J.L.
      • Dijkstra J.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Waghorn G.
      • Makkar H.P.S.
      • Adesogan A.T.
      • Yang W.
      • Lee C.
      • Gerber P.J.
      • Henderson B.
      • Tricarico J.M.
      Special topics-Mitigation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from animal operations: I. A review of enteric methane mitigation options.
      have reported, ECM might be well reflecting the DMI of cows, and at the same time, be a more easily available parameter in practice (e.g., via official milk recording scheme). Thus, calculations based on ECM should give similar values as those based on DMI with slight differences between the equations, as highlighted by our results. Similarly,
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      yielded an estimated CH4 value for intensive system of 524.6 L and between 377 and 471 L for the extensive system, which results in an average difference of 93 L of CH4 per day. Again, this equation is based on DMI, which accounts for 52% to 64% of daily CH4 production when cattle is fed ad libitum (
      • Knapp J.R.
      • Laur G.L.
      • Vadas P.A.
      • Weiss W.P.
      • Tricarico J.M.
      Invited review: Enteric methane in dairy cattle production: Quantifying the opportunities and impact of reducing emissions.
      ).
      The 2 equations of
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      showed high values for both, low- and high-input structures. In fact, results for the first equation were on average 501.03 L for the extensive system and 577.99 L of CH4 for the intensive system, whereas calculations for the second formula resulted in average emissions of 501.73 and 640.86 L for the low and high-input system, respectively. Furthermore, high differences between the 2 systems could be observed when applying the YAN2, whereas the lowest discrepancy between the 2 systems resulted when applying YAN1.
      In contrast to these findings, calculation showed significantly different results when considering the amount of CH4 emitted per kilogram of milk produced as a calculation factor instead of daily CH4 production. Average values were higher for the low-input group (21.86 L of CH4 per L of milk), whereas high-input values were slightly lower (17.88 L of CH4 per L of milk) when applying the ENG2. The difference between the high and low group was quantified at −3.98 L as an average value, with higher CH4 production for the extensive system (Figure 2). Similar results were observed for all other equations examined within our study. The highest discrepancy between the 2 systems was found when applying the equation of YAN2 with the low-input group producing 7.94 L of CH4 more than the high-input group. As for the previous calculations with liters of CH4 per day, emission values, also in this case, were generally high for the equations of
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      , with a CH4 production of 28.55 and 29.61 L of CH4 for the extensive farming group and 20.60 and 23.40 L for the intensive farming group, for YAN1 and YAN2, respectively.
      Figure thumbnail gr2
      Figure 2Predicted values of CH4 production in liters per kilogram of milk according to the second equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      , depending on the farming system and lactation stage. The analysis was performed with square root-transformed data; back-transformed functions are shown. Concerning seasonality, the results are referred to the first week of the year.
      The same difference in CH4 production (−6.12 L of CH4 per L of milk) could be found when adopting the formulas RH (
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      ) and YAN2 (
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      ). Nevertheless, RH showed significantly lower amounts of emitted CH4 for both low and high-input farming with values of 24.94 and 18.82 L of CH4, respectively, which are similar results to those obtained by using ENG2 (
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ). This can be explained with the higher milk production level from the Simmental cattle compared with the Tyrolean Grey cattle. Indeed, as already reported by several studies, when increasing milk yield, CH4 production per liter of milk decreases as a logical consequence, due to a dilutive effect (
      • Jiao H.P.
      • Dale A.J.
      • Carson A.F.
      • Murray S.
      • Gordon A.W.
      • Ferris C.P.
      Effect of concentrate feed level on methane emissions from grazing dairy cows.
      ;
      • O'Brien D.
      • Capper J.L.
      • Garnsworthy P.C.
      • Grainger C.
      • Shalloo L.
      A case study of the carbon footprint of milk from high-performing confinement and grass-based dairy farms.
      ;
      • Lorenz H.
      • Reinsch T.
      • Hess S.
      • Taube F.
      Is low-input dairy farming more climate friendly? A meta-analysis of the carbon footprints of different production systems.
      ). In fact,
      • Jiao H.P.
      • Dale A.J.
      • Carson A.F.
      • Murray S.
      • Gordon A.W.
      • Ferris C.P.
      Effect of concentrate feed level on methane emissions from grazing dairy cows.
      has shown that increasing the amount of concentrate in the ration (which leads to higher milk productivity) might lead to reduced CH4 production per unit of milk, but daily CH4 amounts would remain unaffected.
      Only when using the ENG2 equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      , CH4 production was 14.15 L per kilogram of milk for the low-input system and 15.39 L for the high-input system on average. The difference (δ 1.24 L of CH4 per kilogram of milk) in favor of the low-input system is explainable by the higher content of milk fat (4.7% vs. 4.2%) as well as the higher content of SFA (65.1 g/100 g of total FA vs. 61.5 g/100 g of total FA) in Simmental milk.
      The equations MILLS (
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ) as well as NIU (
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      ) consider the production of CH4 in megajoules per day (MJ/d) and megajoules per kilogram of milk produced (MJ/kg of milk), making use of the DMI as variable for the equations.
      Generally, much lower values were obtained with the formula NIU (
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      ), with an average 10.11 MJ of CH4 produced by the low-input group and 14.99 MJ produced by the high-input group, resulting in a difference of 4.88 MJ/d (Figure 3). In contrast to that, the difference between the 2 systems was on average 3.87 for the equation of MILLS (
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ). Moreover, generally higher CH4 amounts could be detected with the use of the formula reported in
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ), ranging from 18.98 to 22.86 MJ/d for the low- and the high-input system, respectively. When calculating the produced MJ of CH4 per kilogram of milk, the low-input system produced more CH4 (0.32 and 0.21 MJ of CH4 per kilogram of milk on average), than the high-input system (0.26 and 0.19 MJ of CH4 per kilogram of milk on average; Figure 4). As described previously, due to dilution effect, CH4 production is proportionally smaller for the high-input group when counting the emissions per kilogram of milk instead of counting absolute emissions.
      Figure thumbnail gr3
      Figure 3Predicted values of CH4 production in megajoules per day according to the equation by
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      , depending on the farming system, parity, and lactation stage. Concerning seasonality, the results are referred to the first week of the year.
      Figure thumbnail gr4
      Figure 4Predicted values of CH4 production in megajoules per kilogram of milk according to the equation by
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      , depending on the farming system, parity, and lactation stage. The analysis was performed with logarithm (base 10)-transformed data; back-transformed functions are shown. Concerning seasonality, the results are referred to the first week of the year.

      Effect of Parity and Lactation Stage on CH4 Emissions

      When comparing primiparous with multiparous cows, as well as the lactation stage, lowest emissions were generally observed during the first lactation when compared to the following lactations. This can be explained by the fact that in primiparous cows, milk yield (
      • Shanks R.D.
      • Berger P.J.
      • Freeman A.E.
      • Dickinson F.N.
      Genetic aspects of lactation curves.
      ) along with DMI, is lower than in multiparous cows. The smallest difference between first and following lactations was shown when applying the first equation (YAN1) published by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      , with a difference in overall CH4 emission of 51.5 L of CH4 per day. Again, highest difference (68.2 L of CH4 per d) could be observed for the second formula (YAN2) of
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      , which, however, generally showed highest CH4 emission values for the analyzed system. This might be explainable by the fact that this equation, in addition to DMI, includes BW as variable. However, it has been shown elsewhere that BW and CH4 production do not have any significant correlation and, hence, CH4 emission should not be influenced by BW (
      • Breider I.S.
      • Wall E.
      • Garnsworthy P.C.
      Short communication: Heritability of methane production and genetic correlations with milk yield and body weight in Holstein-Friesian dairy cows.
      ).
      In addition to that, when assessing CH4 values obtained per day, a clear trend of lowest emissions during the beginning and the end of the lactation period and highest emissions toward the lactation peak could be observed, which is in line with the findings of
      • Veerkamp R.F.
      • Thompson R.
      A covariance function for feed intake, live weight, and milk yield estimated using a random regression model.
      . Solely, the results based on the equation (ENG2) of
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      showed a different pattern with highest CH4 values at the beginning of the lactation period and decreasing CH4 production with continuous lactation, which might be explained by the parameter of milk FA. In fact,
      • Vanrobays M.L.
      • Bastin C.
      • Vandenplas J.
      • Hammami H.
      • Soyeurt H.
      • Vanlierde A.
      • Dehareng F.
      • Froidmont E.
      • Gengler N.
      Changes throughout lactation in phenotypic and genetic correlations between methane emissions and milk fatty acid contents predicted from milk mid-infrared spectra.
      has shown that correlations between milk FA content and CH4 production vary significantly during the lactation period.
      When calculating CH4 emissions per kilogram of milk, CH4 values are generally highest toward the end of the lactation, whereas lowest values were observed at the beginning of the lactation period. This finding is perfectly in line with the data provided by
      • Veerkamp R.F.
      • Thompson R.
      A covariance function for feed intake, live weight, and milk yield estimated using a random regression model.
      , who revealed that DMI does not rise as fast as milk yield at the beginning of the lactation period, whereas it continues to increase together with milk yield in the following stages of the lactation period. At the end of the lactation, milk productivity decreases faster than feed intake, which explains the highest CH4 values per kilogram of milk during this period.
      No significant difference between first and following lactations could be observed for the equations ENG2, MILLS, and NIU. This could denote a low ability of these equations in illustrating differences between lactations.

      Correlations Between Equations

      Strong correlations could be observed for all equations when examining CH4 emissions as liters per day. In fact, correlation coefficients (r) varied between 0.630 and 0.999 (Table 7). Lower r values were achieved by the results of ENG1 with those of all other equations, which points out the differentiating role played by the inclusion of the FA percentage in the equation. In contrast, for those calculations based on CH4 production per kilogram of milk, results were more diverse, indicating stronger differences between the results of different equations (Table 8). Although positive correlations were detected, r values range from 0.021 to 0.999 with largely varying P-values. Nonsignificant correlations were observed between equations MILLS and ENG1 (0.041), RH and ENG1 (0.046), as well as between YAN1 and ENG1 (0.021; Table 8). In contrast, the formula ENG2 shows strong correlations to other equations based on DMI only and could, therefore, be used as an alternative formula for evaluating CH4 emissions (Table 8).
      Table 7Pearson correlation between the results of the equations used to estimate the CH4 production per cow (CH4 amount/animal per day)
      Formula
      ENG1 = first equation by Engelke et al. (2018); RH = equation by Ramin and Huhtanen (2012); ENG2 = second equation by Engelke et al. (2018); MILLS = equation by Mills et al. (2003); NIU = equation by Niu et al. (2021); YAN1 = first equation by Yan et al. (2006); YAN2 = second equation by Yan et al. (2006).
      Formula
      ENG1RHENG2MILLSNIUYAN1YAN2
      ENG11.0000.635
      P < 0.01.
      0.695
      P < 0.01.
      0.635
      P < 0.01.
      0.640
      P < 0.01.
      0.630
      P < 0.01.
      0.652
      P < 0.01.
      RH1.0000.801
      P < 0.01.
      0.999
      P < 0.01.
      0.999
      P < 0.01.
      0.987
      P < 0.01.
      0.941
      P < 0.01.
      ENG21.0000.804
      P < 0.01.
      0.805
      P < 0.01.
      0.804
      P < 0.01.
      0.751
      P < 0.01.
      MILLS1.0000.998
      P < 0.01.
      0.993
      P < 0.01.
      0.94
      P < 0.01.
      NIU1.0000.982
      P < 0.01.
      0.945
      P < 0.01.
      YAN11.0000.927
      P < 0.01.
      YAN21.000
      1 ENG1 = first equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; RH = equation by
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      ; ENG2 = second equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; MILLS = equation by
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ; NIU = equation by
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      ; YAN1 = first equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      ; YAN2 = second equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      .
      ** P < 0.01.
      Table 8Pearson correlation between the results of the equations used to estimate the CH4 production per kilogram of milk (CH4 amount/kg of milk)
      Formula
      ENG1 = first equation by Engelke et al. (2018); RH = equation by Ramin and Huhtanen (2012); ENG2 = second equation by Engelke et al. (2018); MILLS = equation by Mills et al. (2003); NIU = equation by Niu et al. (2021); YAN1 = first equation by Yan et al. (2006); YAN2 = second equation by Yan et al. (2006).
      Formula
      ENG1RHENG2MILLSNIUYAN1YAN2
      ENG11.0000.046NS0.321
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.041NS0.150
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.021NS0.089
      P < 0.05
      RH1.0000.809
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      1,000
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.883
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.993
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.976
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      ENG21.0000.808
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.787
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.794
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.783
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      MILLS1.0000.875
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.995
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.976
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      NIU1.0000.827
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      0.860
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      YAN11.0000.969
      P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).
      YAN21.000
      1 ENG1 = first equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; RH = equation by
      • Ramin M.
      • Huhtanen P.
      Development of non-linear models for predicting enteric methane production.
      ; ENG2 = second equation by
      • Engelke S.W.
      • Daş G.
      • Derno M.
      • Tuchscherer A.
      • Berg W.
      • Kuhla B.
      • Metges C.C.
      Milk fatty acids estimated by mid-infrared spectroscopy and milk yield can predict methane emissions in dairy cows.
      ; MILLS = equation by
      • Mills J.A.N.
      • Kebreab E.
      • Yates C.M.
      • Crompton L.A.
      • Cammell S.B.
      • Dhanoa M.S.
      • Agnew R.E.
      • France J.
      Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.
      ; NIU = equation by
      • Niu P.
      • Schwarm A.
      • Bonesmo H.
      • Kidane A.
      • Aspeholen Åby B.
      • Storlien T.M.
      • Kreuzer M.
      • Alvarez C.
      • Sommerseth J.K.
      • Prestløkken E.
      A basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and its application to update operational models for the national inventory in Norway.
      ; YAN1 = first equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      ; YAN2 = second equation by
      • Yan T.
      • Mayne C.S.
      • Porter M.G.
      Effects of dietary and animal factors on methane production in dairy cows offered grass silage-based diets.
      .
      * P < 0.05
      ** P < 0.01; NS (P ≥ 0.05).

      CONCLUSIONS

      In the present study, CH4 emissions of 2 different dairy production systems typical for small-scale mountain dairy farms were estimated by previously developed equations, which consider routinely collected production parameters, such as milk FA and milk solids. No direct measurements (e.g., respiration chamber) for CH4 emissions were performed to calculate estimation accuracy of selected equations. Nevertheless, the results clearly demonstrated the potential of using such equations under field conditions on a large scale using routinely collected parameters for quantifying CH4 emissions to compare different dairy production systems, in terms of their relevance for greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The latter could open new perspectives for breeding purpose and management decisions. Consequently, results of this study should help in providing useful information in the debate on sustainable milk production and the development of future climate friendlier production systems in regions where the on-farm production of concentrates is not possible due to climatic and topographic constraints (e.g., mountain area) and, thus, are mainly imported from other regions.

      ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

      This study is part of the project Comparison of Dairy Farming Systems (CODA), which is part of the Action Plan 2016–2022 for Research and Training in the Fields of Mountain Agriculture and Food Science of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen (Italy). The open access publication of this article was further supported by the Open Access Publishing Fund provided by the Free University of Bolzano. We thank the dairy association of South Tyrol (Sennereiverband Südtirol; Italy) for providing the milk analysis data. The authors have not stated any conflicts of interest.

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